A high profile statistician (the only one, I guess) gave Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown a 94-percent chance of victory in Maryland’s governor’s race. And I don’t mean way at the beginning of the campaign before Larry Hogan closed in on Gov. Martin O’Malley’s heir apparent. No, those were the odds offered by statistics guru Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog as part of their final predictions published at 6 a.m. Tuesday morning. (Brown’s chances were actually upgraded by a point since their Oct. 31 forecasts.)
Even as the race was tightening and national funds were directed to both campaigns, Hogan still had to face the scale of the Democratic operation in Maryland. According to the Baltimore Sun, Democrats were planning 300,000 Election Day phone calls to party loyalists, to Republicans’ 30,000.
I wonder if FiveThirtyEight will reevaluate their method for weighting polling data — the same method, presumably, that accurately predicted the outcomes in all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election. Or was this
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