O’Malley’s Own Projections Don’t Seem to Give Him the Nomination

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Martin O'Malley

Policy Mic decided it had enough information to call it: Bernie Sanders has effectively knocked Martin O’Malley “out of the race” for the Democratic party’s presidential nomination. But, as BuzzFeed pointed out, O’Malley’s own optimistic projection don’t add up to a nomination either.

Last weekend O’Malley gave a radio interview in which he said he while he is currently a “virtual unknown in Iowa and New Hampshire,” two important early states in the primary race, he would like to see his campaign pick up a percentage point in the polls “every couple weeks as we move toward January.”

The math here is pretty straightforward. An average of recent polls puts O’Malley at 1.4 percent, leading candidate Hillary Clinton at 62.8 percent. Forget January; let’s have his half-a-point-per-week increase continue right up until the Iowa caucuses on February 1. Even if every percentage point he gains is one that Clinton loses (and remember Bernie Sanders is surging in second place right now), he would still be down 30-some-odd points.


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