The Goucher College Poll is out, having surveyed 800 Maryland registered voters about their opinions on issues about the U.S. Senate race, Gov. Wes Moore, the direction of the state of Maryland, and the economic conditions in the state. Additionally, 408 Democratic likely voters were asked about the Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate.
Either Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate (Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks or Rep. David Trone) would run a closely contested race with former Governor Larry Hogan, with Trone the preferred Democratic candidate between him and Alsobrooks.
Major issues on the minds of Maryland voters include crime, public safety, economic development, jobs, taxes, and government spending. Democrats are deeply concerned about winning control of the U.S. Senate. Moore is on solid footing with voters, and voters are split over the state’s direction and economic conditions.
Hogan, Trone, and Alsobrooks are running to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate, a seat held by Ben Cardin since 2007. Voters were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of the three candidates running to replace him. Of Hogan, 63% have a favorable opinion, 30% have an unfavorable opinion, and 5% don’t know. Of Trone, 43% have a favorable opinion, 24 % have an unfavorable opinion, and 29% don’t know. Of Alsobrooks, 38% have a favorable opinion, 20% have an unfavorable opinion, and 40% don’t know.
In a two-person match-up, the two Democratic candidates did nearly as well against Hogan. If the race were between Hogan and Alsobrooks, 44% would vote for Hogan, 40% would vote for Alsobrooks, and 11% were undecided. If the race were between Hogan and Trone, 43% would vote for Hogan and 42% would vote for Trone. 10% would be undecided.
“Abortion, gun control, and health care, as well as Democratic control of the U.S. Senate, all matter for Democrats, but public safety, economic development, and tax issues rise to the top as the key issues for voters overall,” said Dr. Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College.
The following numbers represent issues that matter most to voters, and how strongly they prioritize a candidate’s stance on each issue in deciding who wins their vote. The percentages represent those who consider each issue a “major factor” in determining their vote.
- Crime and public safety: 78% (Democrats: 73%; Republicans: 90%; Independents: 76%)
- Economic development and jobs: 75% (Democrats: 77%; Republicans: 74%; Independents: 75%)
- Taxes and Government Spending: 75% (Democrats: 66%; Republicans: 90%; Independents: 83%)
- Health Care: 72%(Democrats: 80%; Republicans: 51%; Independents: 74%)
- Gun control: 68% (Democrats: 74%; Republicans: 57%; Independents: 64%)
- Abortion: 60% (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 40%; Independents: 47%)
- Immigration: 58% (Democrats: 45%; Republicans: 79%; Independents: 66%)
- The environment: 53% (Democrats: 66%; Republicans: 28%; Independents: 44%)
- Transportation and infrastructure: 48% (Democrats: 52%; Republicans: 37%; Independents: 48%)
- Israel-Hamas War: 38% (Democrats: 38%; Republicans: 35%; Independents: 40%)
Respondents were asked if they cared “either way” if the Democratic Party or Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate. 13% responded that they don’t care either way which party wins control. 45% said that the Democratic Party winning control is a “major” issue in determining their vote, and 7% said it is a “minor” issue. 23% responded that the Republican Party winning control of the Senate is a “major” issue in determining their vote, while 5% say it’s a “minor” issue.
Within the Democratic primary race in May, 42% of those who are “very likely” or “absolutely certain” to vote say they will vote for U.S. Rep. David Trone. 33% say they’ll vote for Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Nearly a quarter of Democratic likely voters are undecided on their choice for the primary.
Gov. Wes Moore enjoys a 54% approval rating, while 28% of voters polled disapprove of his job as governor and 16% didn’t have an opinion. In a party breakdown, the numbers looked like this:
- Democrats: 71 percent approve, 13 percent disapprove;
- Republicans: 25 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove;
- Independents: 46 percent approve, 32 percent disapprove.
More respondents felt Maryland is headed in the right direction (43%) than didn’t (40%), but it was very close. Democrats were more positive, with 57% saying the state is moving in the right direction. Republicans had only 16% of respondents feeling the same way, with 70% of Republicans saying Maryland is on the wrong track. Independents were nearly evenly split on the question, with 41% believing the state is going in the right direction and 43% concerned it’s going in the wrong direction.
Maryland’s economy had voters nearly split down the middle on their positive and negative perceptions. 45% surveyed held a mostly positive view of the current economic situation in the state, and 45% had a mostly negative view. The party breakdown is instructive here, if predictable. 59% of Democrats held a mostly positive view of Maryland’s economy, while only 19% of Republicans held that same mostly positive view. 30% of Democrats held a mostly negative view, while a whopping 74% of Republicans held that same negative view. Among Independents, more had a negative view than positive (52% mostly negative vs. 37% mostly positive.)
“Gov. Wes Moore continues to be on solid footing among Maryland voters and earns particularly strong marks among Democrats,” Kromer said. “While voters are divided overall, most Democrats also hold positive views regarding the direction of the state and its economic conditions.”
The Goucher College Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College. The poll is funded by an endowment and partnerships with trusted media organizations.
