Maryland voters are likely to prefer a Republican candidate similar to Gov. Larry Hogan over a moderate or progressive Democrat for their next governor, according to the results of a new Goucher Poll released on Thursday.
The poll asked Maryland registered voters which generic candidate they would prefer in four possible general election scenarios.
Hogan, who is currently in the final year of his second term as governor, cannot run for re-election due to term limits. But Maryland voters currently appear to favor a candidate like Hogan, who continues to have a high approval rating, over a Democrat.
With the general election a year away in November 2022, however, and candidates still having to navigate the primary elections in June 2022, the race for governor is far from decided.
“Preferences can easily change once voters get to know the candidates as individuals,” Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College, said in a statement.
As it stands now, in a matchup between a Republican “similar to Hogan” and a progressive Democrat, 55 percent of voters would likely prefer a Hogan-like Republican candidate while 38 percent would likely prefer a progressive Democrat.
The race between Hogan-esque Republican and a moderate Democrat would be tighter, without a clear majority in the poll. But a plurality of voters, 49 percent, said they would likely prefer a Republican candidate like Hogan while 44 percent said they would likely prefer a moderate Democrat.
The pathway to the governor’s mansion appears to be more straightforward for a moderate or progressive Democrat facing a Republican candidate more similar in style and beliefs to former president Donald Trump.
Between a Trump-like Republican and a progressive Democrat, 62 percent of voters would likely prefer the Democrat, and 31 percent would likely prefer the Republican.
The gap would be even wider if a Republican similar to Trump and a moderate Democrat were to face off, with 69 percent of voters saying they would likely prefer the Democrat and 29 percent saying they would likely prefer the Republican.
Throughout his time in office, Hogan distanced himself from Trump, and never embraced divisive cultural issues that often motivate a core of GOP voters.
“Our results suggest that a Republican like President Donald Trump—who never registered approval ratings above the low-30s in Maryland during his single term—would face a significant electoral disadvantage against either a moderate or progressive Democrat in the upcoming gubernatorial election,” Kromer said in a statement. “The clearest path to holding the governorship for Maryland Republicans is by nominating a candidate who voters view as similar to Larry Hogan,”
For Democrats, a more moderate candidate could be electorally stronger than a progressive candidate, Kromer added.
The poll also asked Maryland voters about what they expect will be the most important issue in determining whom they will vote for governor in 2022.
The economy and jobs were the most important issues for 28 percent of voters; health care for 14 percent; racial and social issues for 13 percent; and taxes for 12 percent.
The Goucher Poll surveyed 700 Marylanders by phone from Oct. 14-20. For the sample size of 700 Maryland adults, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.
For the sample of 631 adult Marylanders identified as registered voters, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.
Read about the Goucher Poll results from Tuesday and Wednesday.
