If the election were held today, half of Maryland voters would choose to return Democrat Wes Moore to the Governor’s Mansion, according to a new poll by Gonzales Research & Media Services.
Meanwhile, 28% would back an unnamed Republican challenger, 6% would cast their ballot for an unnamed third-party candidate, and 16% are undecided.
While Gonzales acknowledges a candidate only needs 50% of the vote to win an election, he also notes that’s a far cry from 2022 when Moore earned 64% of the vote to become governor.
That sliding support is represented in the governor’s approval rating, too. Currently, 52% of voters approve of his job as governor, while 41% disapprove. Moore’s approval rating is down from 61% one year ago in January 2025, and from his peak of 64% in September 2024.
“The lines are converging – and fast,” wrote Gonzales, who conducts statewide polling and who is also the pollster for Ed. Hale Sr., the Baltimore businessman who is running for governor as a Republican after switching parties given Moore’s strength. “What was once a comfortable margin is now a tightening squeeze,” Gonzales said.
Marylanders were nearly evenly split on how they feel the state is doing, with 47% saying Maryland is heading in the right direction, while 44% said the state is moving in the wrong direction.
That “narrow, uneasy balance … signals neither broad confidence nor outright pessimism,” Gonzales wrote.
He added, “These numbers suggest an electorate caught in a moment of collective ambivalence, where nearly equal shares of people see progress and decline in the very same landscape. Such a split reminds us that “direction” is never purely external – it’s filtered through experience, memory, and hope (or lack thereof).”
But Marylanders were more decisive in their views on taxes. More than half – 58% – said they and their family are paying too much in taxes, and another 41% feel the amount of taxes they pay is about right. Unsurprisingly, practically nobody felt they were paying too little in taxes.
The Gonzales poll surveyed 808 likely Maryland voters by phone from Dec. 21 through Jan. 6. There is a 95% probability that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Moore’s campaign notes that has approval rating has remained relatively steady over the past year, and asserts that he is one of the most popular governors in the nation.
“Gov. Moore is laser focused on delivering results, not on any polls,” said Carter Elliott, IV, a campaign spokesman. “Last session, Gov. Moore led the charge to provide a tax cut or no change in income taxes to 94% of all Marylanders. And, since he’s taken office, homicides have fallen 44% across the state, Maryland’s created nearly 100,000 jobs including the largest investment by a single company in Maryland history, and the state has seen increases in reading and math scores in nearly every single grade level.
“Those are the kinds of results Governor Moore will continue to work day and night to deliver for Maryland,” Elliott said.
