Heritage Foundation Economist Thinks Trump Might Win Maryland

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The Heritage Foundation, where dreams are formed.
The Heritage Foundation, where dreams are formed.

There’s at least one guy who is pretty optimistic about Donald Trump’s chances in Maryland in November.

The statistics-centric news website FiveThirtyEight features a constantly updated map with projections for each state’s presidential election outcomes. As of this posting, the site has pinned Hillary Clinton’s chances of carrying Maryland at “greater than 99.9 percent.” That’s better odds than the Democratic nominee has even in liberal strongholds like California in New York. In fact, FiveThirtyEight ranks Maryland as her safest state in the union.

But Steve Moore, an economist with the Heritage Foundation and economic adviser to Trump, recently told a crowd of conservative Maryland business owners that he “really believe[s] that Maryland is winnable in November,” referring to the chances of the Republican party’s U.S. Senate and presidential candidates, according to Maryland Reporter.

Moore’s prediction of “a lot of surprises in November” hinges on the existence of critical mass of invisible Trump supporters who have declined to express their true preference in basically every single poll.

Moore can envision more than just an election outcome that defies common sense. He also can somehow imagine a Maryland which is “more like Texas,” shedding its personal income tax.

 



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  1. Don’t know if Trump will carry Maryland but I do believe many U.S. pollsters will be as surprised about the presidential election as their Brexit counterparts were. I believe “remain” was up 12 points the night before voters elected to leave with a winning margin of 4 or 5 points. That’s a pretty big spread.

    Computerized polls consistently trend higher for Trump than human-to-human polls because rampant Alinsky-ism has dangerously conflated rule of law, national security and sovereignty with racism and xenophobia. This makes people who support Trump for reasons such as economics (e.g. small business owners) afraid to speak out for fear of being slandered and/or libeled as racist.

    My wife and I were looking at it this morning and Trump’s tax plan would put significantly more take home money in our pocket. The tithes and offerings we made this morning were based on net pay, which would be higher, meaning we could send more checks directly to those with medical needs (through our faith-based alternative to Obamacare, which is a medical cost-sharing network).

    Then we looked to purchase a freestanding cabinet to help organize our kitchen. I think we’re okay to do this, but if I’d feel more confident in making purchases like this if I had another several hundred dollars per month coming home, instead of 25% of my income being taken to, in many cases, be wasted on things like $2 billion dollar websites designed to support a failing Obamacare program.

    When my wife and I write a check to a fellow Christian in need, we trust that the money is going directly to the individual with medical expenses (this morning we had the blessing to support someone with an inner ear infection that spread to the brain lining and may require several surgeries, and a widow who is still paying medical bills associated with her late husband’s melanoma). They’ll know just what to do with it.

    When, in the past, our money was essentially taken by the federal government for healthcare, it was squandered on skyrocketing deductibles and premiums. As business owners, we did not get to “keep our plan,” contrary to Mr. Obama’s promise. Our rate did not go down by an average of $2,500, as he asserted. We lost our plan, which never would have cost us more than $5,000. Our deductibles and premiums went up.

    Anyway, if thinking that I’ll make more purchases (which stimulate the economy) and give more tithes and offerings, which will be far more effectively administered with far less overhead makes me “deplorable” in the eyes of Hillary “big-government / big taxes / we-know-better-than-you-do-what-to-do with-your-money” Clinton, then so be it.

    Just remember that computerized polls and online post-debate polls (which are admittedly nonscientific) both allow ANONYMOUS ways to support Trump.

    Just like the voting booth.

    I will post my thoughts about the presidency on sites i which I can be anonymous–not on ones which require Facebook, because I don’t need the hateful judgement.

    I don’t have a Trump sign in my yard or bumper sticker on my car, not because I don’t believe he can make America great again, but because I don’t want my house toilet papered or car keyed by those who would hatefully try to punish speech that doesn’t comport with their own view, often, ironically, while calling Trump supporters haters.

    My wife and I are not racists. We are not against lawful immigration. We are small business owners who would prefer change to status quo, more take home pay to less, and a business-minded mentality in Washington looking for ways to reduce fraud, waste and abuse.

    We are part of the silent majority. There are many people you encounter online and in day-to-day life who are anonymous Trump supporters.

    And we might just surprise the pollsters here the way the Brexit vote surprised them overseas.

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