Bernie Sanders’ upset win over Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary surprised virtually everybody — everybody except one Hopkins graduate student.
FiveThirtyEight‘s Harry Enten declared that he and other political forecasters were “eat[ing] a stack of humble pie” after Sanders pulled off a primary win in Michigan. Why? Because “not a single poll taken over the last month had Clinton leading by less than 5 percentage points.” The statistics-oriented site predicted a Clinton win with greater than 99-percent confidence.
But blogger Tyler Pedigo, a student at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies*, predicted a Sanders win. His statistical model doesn’t rely on polls, which has been a strength in this pundit-stumping election cycle.
That’s not to say his projections have been flawless. After each round of primaries and caucuses, Pedigo discusses what he got right, what he got wrong, and how he’s adjusting his algorithms to improve his forecasting.
If you’re into the statistical end of politics, Pedigo’s blog is a refreshing dose of unassuming rationality.
*: located in a little town about 40 miles southwest of Baltimore
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