Poll: Hogan Holds Advantage in Matchups with Democratic Front-runners

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Gov. Larry Hogan nearly holds a 10-point lead in potential matchups with the top three Democrats looking to unseat him in November, according to a new poll released by Gonzales Research & Media Services.

Democratic front-runner Rushern Baker, the county executive in Prince George’s County, has the least ground to make up. Hogan would beat him in a potential election 47 percent to 37 percent, with around 16 percent of voters polled undecided.

The governor’s lead opens up against Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and former NAACP president Ben Jealous. Against the former, Hogan has an advantage of 48 percent to 33 percent, with 18 percent undecided. Jealous fares slightly better, trailing 36 percent to 49 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

Polling found that 71 percent of voters still approve of the job Hogan’s doing, a sign of his continued popularity in the state. But his numbers take in election scenarios. Among the Democrats who say they “strongly approve” of Hogan, 38 percent would either vote for his opponent or remain undecided. That number increases to 90 percent for Democrats who only “somewhat” approve of the Hogan administration.

“The key for Hogan in November will be to pick up about 30 percent of Democrats,” the polling firm says.

Along demographic lines, Hogan’s numbers are buoyed by support from white voters, ranging from 57 to 59 percent depending on the opponent. African-Americans backed the Democrat in each potential contest by a range of 47 percent (Kamenetz) to 66 percent (Baker).

The same areas that propelled Hogan to victory in 2014, Western Maryland, the Eastern Shore and Baltimore County, appear to once again be his strongest supporters.

Conducted between Dec. 27, 2017 and Jan. 5, the poll surveyed 823 registered voters. The Democratic primary to choose Hogan’s challenger is June 26.

Brandon Weigel

Brandon Weigel

Brandon Weigel is the managing editor of Baltimore Fishbowl. A graduate of the University of Maryland, he has been published in The Washington Post, The Sun, Baltimore Magazine, Urbanite, The Baltimore Business Journal, b and others. Prior to joining Baltimore Fishbowl, he was an editor at City Paper from 2012 to 2017. He can be reached at [email protected]
Brandon Weigel


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