A new Fox 45 poll conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services shows former Mayor Sheila Dixon has a slim lead in the mayorโs race, trailed by a group in a three-way tie: former BPD spokesman T.J. Smith, former federal prosecutor and Deputy Attorney General of Maryland Thiru Vignarajah and State Sen. Mary Washington.
Dixon has 17 percent support, while Smith, Vignarajah and Washington all have an equal share of 15 percent. City Council President Brandon Scott and Mayor Bernard C. โJackโ Young, the only candidates among the leaders to actively hold a position in city government, have 11 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
But hereโs the rub: The margin of error is plus-or-minus 6 points, meaning anyone from Dixon to Scott could statistically be the actual front-runner.
Compared with a Gonzales poll that Fox 45 ran in January, Washington (up 8 points) and Smith (up 4 points) have surged, while Scott (down 7 points) and Young (down 6 points) have plummeted. Itโs worth pointing out that January poll had the same margin of error as the one released today.
Todayโs numbers are wildly different than a poll released by Scottโs campaign and published by the Baltimore Brew on Monday. That survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group, had Dixon at 20 percent and Scott at 16 percent, followed by Smith (13 percent), Young (11 percent), Vignarajah (11 percent), Mary Washington (9 percent) and former Treasury Department official Mary Miller (2 percent).
For those keeping score at home, the margin of error on that poll was plus-or-minus 4.9 percent.
Scottโs campaign said its poll was proof the council president is โbest positioned to win this raceโand the only person with the citywide support needed to overcome Baltimoreโs failed status quo leadership.โ
They also pointed to Scottโs high favorability ratings compared to his peers, arguing they give him the best chance of separating from the pack.
OK, letโs get this out of the way: Hereโs how each poll was conducted. Both Gonzales polls surveyed more than 300 likely Democratic voters, while the one from Scottโs campaign surveyed 401 likely Democratic voters between Feb. 6-10.
Naturally, the Smith and Washington campaigns seized on todayโs results as signs of their respective candidateโs viability.
Change is inevitable and our support is surging. We continue to build momentum every day, and we’re doing it without big money donations or relying on the pay-to-play-politics of the past. Help us keep it going by giving today: https://t.co/sdzeayIjXe https://t.co/xOAO6XSyLn
โ State Senator Mary Washington (@StateSenMaryW) February 26, 2020
The momentum is on our side. Say NO to the Status Quo! In order to #BeMore, we must expect more. Thank you for your support. Iโm the least funded candidate, but that is because this is about YOU. Letโs do this! Donate: https://t.co/QmEZXcXWzwhttps://t.co/q8wtsYWjvs
โ T.J. Smith (@TJSmithSocial) February 26, 2020
However, when looking at all the polling data available, it feels like the state of the mayorโs race is โพ\_(ใ)_/โพ.
