Democrat Gov. Wes Moore, who will be up for reelection in November 2026, leads in a matchup against an unnamed Republican candidate, according to a new poll by the UMBC Institute of Politics.
The poll found 49% of registered voters would cast their ballot for Moore, while 29% would support the Republican candidate. Meanwhile, 12% said they would back “some other candidate,” and 10% are undecided.
While Moore’s approval rating held steady in another UMBC poll released on Monday, the percentage of Marylanders who disapprove of his job as governor inched upwards.
The Republican Party currently controls both chambers of Congress.
Nearly three in five voters (58%) said they want to see the Democratic Party win control in November, while 32% said they want the Republican Party to maintain control. Another 7% said they do not care either way.
Exactly half of voters said they are unlikely to consider voting for a candidate from a political party different from their own, while 46% said they are likely to do so.
About half of voters (52%) said they were motivated to cast their ballot mostly to support a candidate they like, compared to 18% who said they cast their ballot mostly to oppose a candidate they dislike. More than a quarter (27%) said they were motivated by a little bit of both.
The Maryland State Board of Elections reports that just under half of eligible registered voters cast a ballot in the 2022 Midterm Election, when Moore was elected to his first term as governor.
However, most Maryland voters who participated in the UMBC poll said they regularly vote, including 63% who said they vote in every election without exception, and 31% who said they vote in almost every election.
Marylanders trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle almost all the issues facing the state that they were asked about.
The gap was widest on the issue of health care, with 57% of voters saying they trusted the Democratic Party more and 24% trusting the Republican Party more (a 33-point difference).
Democrats held a greater portion of voters’ trust compared to Republicans on the handling of public education (24-point difference), transportation and infrastructure (20-point difference), job growth and economic development (11-point difference), immigration (8-point difference), and the state budget (7-point difference).
The only issue on which voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats was crime and public safety. The poll found 39% of voters trust Republicans to handle this issue, while 38% trust Democrats (a 1-point difference).
Voters were more likely to say these phrases described Democrats rather than Republicans: “cares about ordinary people” (24-point difference), “focused on issues I care about” (14-point difference), “shares my values” (12-point difference), “capable of handling a crisis” (10-point difference), “gets things done” (6-point difference) “keeps promises” (5-point difference).
Pollsters with the UMBC Institute of Politics conducted a survey of a random sample stratified by county of 810 Maryland adults, including 757 registered voters. Live interviewers conducted the poll by phone between 1 p.m. and 8 p.m. from Oct. 21 to Oct. 25.
Interviewers attempted to reach respondents with working phone numbers a maximum of five times. Braun Research provided the sample of telephone numbers and the data collection.
There is a 95 percent probability that the survey results have a margin of error or plus or minus 3.4% for the sample of 810 Maryland adults, and plus or minus 3.5% for the sample of 757 Maryland registered voters.
