Here’s a first-cut analysis on the results of Maryland’s primary elections, based on conversations with Maryland political veterans and a recent taping of the latest edition of the Maryland Now podcast, dropping tomorrow:
Social media is not (yet) real life
Bobby LaPin, the hoodie-wearing, smiling progressive charter boat captain, gets over a million monthly views on Instagram. His voluble, quick-witted videos question the status quo. So when he trained his sights on incumbent Bill Ferguson of Baltimore, the Senate president was in for the toughest challenge in years – and it seemed like he might fall victim to a disgruntled electorate and a Tik Tok revolution.
But Ferguson rolled up his sleeves and knocked on doors, and LaPin’s popular social media posts weren’t enough to generate an election victory in the South Baltimore-based 46th District. Ferguson won his reelection contest by 13 points as of this writing.
In Baltimore County, Nick Stewart, a tall, dashing lawyer and former school board member, had an omnipresent social media campaign that included a boxing match with Logan Lambert of Dundalk. Stewart ran as an outsider who wanted to reform the old-school ways of Baltimore County government, using effective social media as a tool. But whatever momentum he displayed on apps didn’t translate into votes. He finished with less than 20 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field for county executive.
In Howard County, County Councilwoman Deb Jung played the populist outrage card and enlisted a flood of social media backers to amplify her “pay to play” attacks against the leading candidate in the race for Howard County Executive. While it may have seemed like Jung’s support was on the rise in the final days, voters weighed in and it is now clear she was not a serious contender.
The candidacies of LaPin, Stewart and Jung show that a strong social media game is not enough on its own to win a competitive race, and that Instagram and Facebook are not accurate reflections of what voters are living and thinking. At least for now.
Maryland saw some change, but not an overwhelming amount
Incumbents generally did well on Primary Day, but there were signs that voters were ready for change in a few areas.
In Baltimore County, attorney Sarah David ran by what all accounts was a stellar campaign to defeat longtime incumbent Scott Shellenberger for Baltimore County State’s Attorney. Shellenberger faced a tough challenge four years ago, and some observers were surprised that he chose to run again. But barring scandal or gross incompetence, it’s unusual for incumbents to lose down-ballot races, and David’s victory is getting a good bit of attention.
In Baltimore City, challenger Sabrina Tapp-Harper defeated incumbent Sam Cogen, in what was a bit of a grudge match. Two years ago, Cogen backed Sheila Dixon in her mayoral comeback attempt against Brandon Scott. This year, Scott endorsed Tapp-Harper, giving her an edge.
In District 41 in Northwest Baltimore, voters rejected the reelection bid of Sen. Dalya Attar and chose instead Del. Malcolm Ruff, a civil rights lawyer. It was a bitter contest, and Attar, the first Orthodox Jewish woman to serve in the Senate, was indicted in October on charges that she colluded to blackmail a former campaign consultant by videotaping her affair.
These examples were the exceptions to the rule, however. In general, establishment candidates – those with endorsements, money and who had been on the ballot before – generally came out as winners.
Money still matters
There’s been a push at the local level in Maryland to reduce the influence of money in politics. Through public campaign financing, candidates agree to caps on donation amounts and limints on the type of donors they can collect from (i.e. no corporations or PACs), and their donations are matched multiple times over by taxpayer money. But in this cycle, the highest profile candidates choosing public financing did not win. Those with the most resources from the regular cadre of donors were victorious. In short, money matters.
In contested county executive contests, Julian Jones won in Baltimore County, Vanessa Atterbeary won in Howard County and Allison Pickard won in Anne Arundel because they had the money to get their message out. One notable exception: Will Jawando tapped into the public financing system for his Montgomery County executive race.
Money buys stuff. It buys six mailings, versus three for your opponents. It buys more ad time, and often more creative content. It pays for more signs. It just matters.
Money was a major factor in the victory of Adrian Boafo, the state delegate who emerged from a crowded primary field to be the nominee to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Steny Hoyer in the 5th congressional district. It wasn’t the only factor – Hoyer endorsed Boafo – but there was so much outside money coming into the race that Sen. Chris Van Hollen issued a rare pubic rebuke about it.
But money has its limits: David Trone spent $25 million of his own liquor store fortune but failed to regain the congressional seat he once held, falling short to April McLain Delaney, the incumbent who spent $7.5 million of her own wealth on the race.
A great night for the governor
Gov. Wes Moore and his team went through a lengthly process of deciding on endorsements this year. He’s been meeting with candidates for months, reviewing polling, finance reports and campaign plans. Then he and his team studied all that, and made roughly 200 endorsements – at every level.
His record was nearly flawless: 94 percent of the candidates he endorsed were winners. Moore backed the winning county executives in Baltimore (Julian Jones), Montgomery (Will Jawando) and Howard (Vanessa Atterbeary) counties. They all won, by margins wider than some (well, me!) expected. Call it the Moore Effect?
Moore also got the general election match-up he wanted. He’ll face MAGA favorite Dan Cox in a rematch. Cox defeated retired banker Ed Hale, a former Democrat who switched parties, in the Republican gubernatorial primary. So Moore gets to run, effectively, against Trump. It won’t be close.
Moore is the only Black elected governor in the nation. And after the general election, five of the six largest urban jurisdictions in the state, representing 60 percent of residents, will be led by Black elected leaders.
A middle temperament
As my colleague, political journalist Josh Kurtz, put it: the election showed that Maryland is still defined by a Middle Temperament. The Democrats who won are generally pro-growth and pro-business, and the Democratic Socialism that seems ascendent in places like, say, New York, has not yet arrived in the Land of Pleasant Living. Moore and those he backed may be creating a Wakanda here (as you’ll hear my colleagues call it on an upcoming Maryland Now podcast), but it’s a capitalist one, not socialist.
